COVID-19 case death rate per capita increasing in the US and SA…

Coronavirus pandemic continues to top global news. As of today, total confirmed cases globally stand at 13.3million, out of which 577,954 have died. Uganda is still fortunate with a zero-case mortality rate.

To know how lucky Uganda is, study carefully the Table 1, Table 2, and Graph 1.

The COVID-19 case death rate in the USA was at 0.039% as of 27th June 2020. The death rate increased to 0.042% as of 15th July 2020. This means as a cumulative number of cases increases, the higher the case mortality. This is not a good trend. The trend more than doubled in South Africa, from 0.004% death rate as of 27th June 2020 to 0.007% as of 15th July 2020.  In Uganda, the infection rate, calculated as a percentage of the total confirmed cases over the total population, was 0.024% as of 15th July 2020 compared to 0.0019% 18 days ago on 27th June 2020.

The USA continues to be exposed to the pandemic following the easing of the lockdown restrictions, anti-racism demonstrations, and ongoing campaigns for the upcoming elections.

The infection rate increased to 1.062% on 15th July 2020 compared to 0.765% rate on 27th June 2020. A higher infection rate increases pressure on the medical facilities and entire health infrastructure.

Table 1: Projected COVID19 death rates in South Africa and Uganda, at the USA death rate as of July 15th, 2020.

Figure 1 – COVID-19 percapita infection and death rates as at July 15th 2020
  1. At the rate of the US coronavirus death rate, with Uganda’s 42.7 million people, the country would have 453,480 confirmed cases and assuming an advanced health care system in the country, register 18,009 coronavirus death. But that is not what is an extrapolation based on the US numbers. In reality, if Uganda registered over 100,000 monthly active cases the country’s health care system would become overwhelmed, and thereby leading to massive death.
  2. The government’s lockdown restriction makes sense when viewed from this angle. The ability to contain the pandemic to less than 1,500 cases as of today, 15th July 2020 is a welcome development.

Other noteworthy developments in Uganda in the coronavirus fight

  1. The government of Uganda should empower the medical fraternity to support covid19 treatment. According to the Daily Monitor of 14th July 2020 page 3, a team of scientists has been collecting blood from the recovered COVID-19 cases (convalescent plasma) for treating new cases, and now have processed the plasma which now awaits approval by Uganda’s National Drug Authority (NDA) to start treating COVID-19 cases. This is a welcome development that could help the country win the war against the pandemic as well as earn foreign exchange since the world is working around the clock to find a cure or vaccine. The government must support the scientists to refine the medicine and explore possibilities of making it commercially viable.
  2. A doctor based at the Uganda National Referral Hospital was reported by the Daily Monitor, of 15th July 2020 as saying that “Covid-19 is a mild disease that can be treated from home, warning that there are other serious illnesses that are not being given due attention”, adding that “it does not make sense to lock down people permanently when preventing a mild disease. People are going to die of serious diseases.” Considering the current zero case death rate, this could be an insight to study further to inform subsequent decisions on the easing of the lockdown restrictions. Already, the government plans to open about 48 city arcades, and of course more arcades and shopping malls shall soon be re-opened. This leaves a question of when the schools and prayer places shall be opened.

What is your comment on the state of coronavirus in the world today, and Uganda in particular?

Copyright Mustapha B Mugisa, 2020. All rights reserved.

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