Scenario analysis is simply structured imagination that anchored in data but open to multiple outcomes. You are mapping out possible futures based on key uncertainties and deliberate decisions.
Step 1: Identify key uncertainties.
In this case, two uncertainties:
a) Will competition increase significantly?
b) Will customer preferences shift toward skilled play or casual play?
Step 2: Map possible decisions.
Two big moves:
Option 1: Stick to recreational programs.
Option 2: Add elite teams.
Step 3: Build four scenarios.
High competition + add elite teams = Market share battle. Risky.
High competition + stay recreational = Lose better players.
Low competition + add elite teams = Grow revenue, dominate.
Low competition + stay recreational = Keep niche, stable position.
Step 4: Stress test each scenario.
Which scenario aligns with your risk appetite? Which drains resources? Which one allows fast pivots if the market shifts?
Step 5: Set decision triggers.
Example: If two competitors announce elite programs within six months, trigger the “add elite teams” strategy. If not, preserve cash and focus on recreational market.
