During a strategic direction validation meeting with the leadership team of a manufacturing company, the CEO proudly unveiled a five-year strategic plan, a beautifully bound document with pages filled with projections, market expansion targets, and digital transformation roadmaps.
I flipped through it and asked, “What part of this plan do you expect to change in the next 12 months?” The room went silent. A few executives shifted uncomfortably. One finally spoke up: “Well, we hope not much changes.” I shook my head. “Then this is a fairy tale, not a strategy.”
I have seen this story play out over and over again in different industries.
Companies spend months crafting five-year plans, only for reality to render them irrelevant within a year. Markets shift, competition changes, economic conditions fluctuate, and suddenly, that ambitious document becomes a paperweight gathering dust in the CEO’s office. The problem is simple businesses plan for a world that doesn’t exist instead of building the agility to thrive in the real one. That is why we run strategy talks called “Execution is the Strategy.” You must build agility in your strategic planning process.
The illusion of long-term certainty
Growing up in the village, I never saw any farmer plan a five-year farming cycle. Why? Because nature doesn’t respect human timelines. You could have a great season one year and then face drought or floods the next. Instead of locking ourselves into rigid five-year predictions, we focused on adaptability diversifying crops, storing food reserves, and constantly observing weather patterns to adjust accordingly.
Yet, in many boardrooms, I see executives make rigid five-year commitments as if business is immune to unpredictability. A manufacturing company in Rwanda once asked me to review their strategic plan. It included projections of 15% year-on-year revenue growth for five years. I asked, “What if the cost of raw materials rises by 30% due to currency fluctuations?” They had no answer. Two years later, exactly that happened, and they scrambled to restructure wasting time, money, and credibility.
The problem is not long-term thinking. The problem is the belief that a rigid, linear plan will survive a rapidly changing business environment.
What to do instead: build an adaptive strategy
Businesses that thrive don’t cling to five-year plans. They operate with a strategic direction but maintain the flexibility to adapt when needed. This requires three key shifts.
a) Shift from fixed plans to rolling strategies During a strategy development project at an insurance company in Kenya, we scrapped their five-year plan and introduced a rolling 12- to 18-month strategy framework. Every quarter, we reviewed performance and adjusted based on market conditions. This allowed them to move faster than competitors still stuck in their outdated five-year roadmaps.
b) Build a culture of real-time intelligence A logistics company in Tanzania I worked with struggled with fluctuating fuel prices. Instead of making five-year fuel cost projections, they started using real-time market data to make short-term adjustments - renegotiating supplier contracts and optimizing routes dynamically. This adaptability saved them millions.
c) Focus on execution, not prediction A retail chain in Zambia spent years planning an ambitious expansion strategy. Meanwhile, a smaller competitor focused on operational efficiency, improving customer experience, and responding quickly to market changes. The result? The so-called “smaller” competitor overtook them within three years. Execution beats grand predictions every time.
The leadership challenge: managing unpredictability
Executives must shift from being “planners” to being “navigators.” A navigator does not blindly follow a five-year map if the road ahead changes. They adjust course while keeping the ultimate destination in mind.
To develop this skill, leaders must:
- Embrace strategic flexibility This means having a clear vision but staying open to changes. Every quarter, assess whether your current strategy still makes sense given new realities. If not, adjust.
- Develop a real-time decision-making framework Train your teams to react quickly to changing conditions. Encourage departments to provide weekly insights on emerging trends rather than waiting for annual reviews.
- Reward adaptability, not just adherence to the plan Many leaders make the mistake of punishing deviations from the five-year plan, even when circumstances demand it. Instead, reward teams that recognize shifts early and respond effectively.
Five-year plans look impressive, but they are usually detached from reality. Businesses that win are those that operate with a clear direction but retain the agility to adapt. Stop treating strategy like a fixed roadmap and start treating it like a dynamic navigation system. The world is changing too fast for you to be stuck in a plan that made sense five years ago but no longer serves your business today.
